The cycle that drives Australia’s unpredictable climate is called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. This essay originated in Black Summer—the climax of the last El Niño. The title was supposed to be ironic, but has become literal for those caught in the recent La Niña east coast floods. As the climate heats, ENSO’s oscillations are becoming wilder.

On 7 December 2020, in anticipation of growing shortages Wall Street began trading futures contracts for water, essentially treating the stuff of life as a commodity like oil or gold. Do we trust the markets to save us? Or is it a sign that we are in deep water?